Series Preview: Padres open second half with series in Kansas City

The first half of the season proved to be an eventful ride for the San Diego Padres. 

After climbing into first place in the NL West in late May despite a lackluster offense, the Padres quickly unraveled, dropping 10 of 11 games. That swing, combined with an eight-game losing streak that featured the worst loss in franchise history, has left San Diego at 48-48 and in third place entering the final 66 games of the season.

San Diego concluded the final series prior to the All-Star break with back-to-back one-run victories over the reigning American League Champion Toronto Blue Jays to reach the .500 mark and move within 3.5 games of the third and final wild card spot. 

The All-Star break came at a great time for a club searching for answers prior with the trade deadline just 18 days away. San Diego opens the second half with a long 10-game road trip — starting with a three-game set with the Kansas City Royals. 

Kansas City is in the midst of a disappointing season after back-to-back winning seasons, as the team is currently tied with the Los Angeles Angels for the worst record in the majors at 38-59. The Royals have lost four straight games eight separate times this season, including a season-worst eight-game skid spanning from April 12-20. A club with aspirations to reach the postseason for the second time in three years in a seemingly open division race will instead sell off pieces with the goal of looking towards 2027 and beyond.

The biggest bright spot for Kansas City, in what is shaping up to be a lost season, continues to be electric play from superstar shortstop Bobby Whit Jr. — who owns the third-shortest odds to win AL MVP behind Rays' third baseman Junior Caminero and the front-runner, Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez. 

The 26-year-old leads Kansas City in average (.286), on-base percentage (.355), slugging percentage (.461), on-base plus slugging (.816) and hits (103) among qualified hitters. The three-time All Star ranks third in Major League Baseball in Wins Above Replacement (WAR) with 4.8 in 91 games this season, raking behind Cubs' center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong (6.0) and Dodgers' two-way star Shohei Ohtani (6.2). 

Kansas City's offense also features Home Run Derby participant Jac Caglianone who leads the club in homers with 15 and veteran catcher Salvador Perez who is quietly enduring his worst season since he broke into the majors back in 2011, slashing .209/.249/.344 in 89 games. 

One glaring issue has plagued Kansas City in the first half — pitching. 

Despite right-handed starter Michael Wacha being selected to Philadelphia's All-Star Game, the starting five has underperformed and struggled without its best arm in lefty Cole Ragans, who underwent UCL repair surgery after making just eight starts this season. In his third year with the club, RHP Seth Lugo has posted his worst ERA (4.56) and WHIP (1.43) since signing a free agent deal with Kansas City prior to the 2024 season.

While the starters have dealt with injuries and inconsistency, the bullpen has been simply disappointing. 

Kansas City enters the second half of the season sporting the worst bullpen ERA (5.35) in the majors with left-hander Matt Strahm posting a staggering 7.18 ERA in 31.1 innings while closer Lucas Erceg has struggled to lock down games in the ninth, converting just 12/18 save opportunities this season. Former starter Daniel Lynch IV has tossed the ball well in relief, holding opponents to a .173 average and striking out 21.4% of hitters faced.

If San Diego wants to entice president of baseball operations AJ Preller to add to this club at the deadline, then it must start strong this weekend against a weaker opponent before traveling to Atlanta and Miami for seven consecutive crucial games. 

San Diego's lineup, which throughout the season has ranked near the bottom in most major offensive categories, will need to find some answers against a underwhelming Kansas City pitching staff. The next three weeks should provide clarity on what this team truly is: a legitimate playoff contender or a club destined for disappointment.

Pitching Probables

Friday, July 17, 5:10 p.m.: RHP Michael King (6-7, 3.41 ERA) vs. RHP Seth Lugo (3-6, 4.56 ERA)

King kicks off the second half with his 20th start of the season looking to build on his strong start to the month of July. The righty has tossed six innings in his last two starts, allowing two runs or fewer in both outings. Lugo takes the ball for Kansas City searching for first win since June 19 against St. Louis. 

Saturday, July 18, 1:10 p.m.: RHP Griffin Canning (1-7, 6.47 ERA) vs. TBD

Canning's first year with the Friars has not gone as expected. In 55.2 innings this season, the right-hander is posting career worst numbers in ERA (6.47), WHIP (1.60), K/BB (1.8) and WAR (-0.6). His last two starts prior to the All-Star break could prove to be a potential turning point for Canning, who has allowed just three runs in 8.2 frames.

Sunday, July 19, 11:10 a.m.: RHP German Marquez (4-2, 5.18 ERA) vs. LHP Noah Cameron (5-7, 4.89 ERA)

The series finale sees Marquez make his ninth start of the season for San Diego while Cameron searches for a bounce-back start after surrendering five runs in Saturday's loss to Baltimore.

Injury Report

San Diego: LHP Wandy Peralta bereavement list (personal), RHP Jason Adam 15-day IL (shoulder), SP Lucas Giolito 15-day IL (elbow), SP Nick Pivetta 60-day IL (forearm), RHP Jeremiah Estrada 15-day IL (knee)

Kansas City: CF Kyle Isbel 10-day IL (foot), 3B Maikel Garcia 10-day IL (hand), SP Kris Bubic 60-day IL (elbow/shoulder),