NL Wildcard Outlook: Padres in position to chase Phillies, Cubs for top spot down the stretch

The adage goes that it’s harder to jump than to hold. The San Diego Padres, in the midst of a seven-game winning streak that is their longest since April, have suddenly also made it a question about the NL Wild Card race whether or not they can catch either the Philadelphia Phillies or Chicago Cubs.

Entering Monday, the Padres hold a 2.5 game lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks for the final NL Wild Card slot, and will have a chance to add the half-a-game they will make up thanks to the D-Backs having an off day on Thursday, Sept. 17. The Snakes still lurk, but all of a sudden San Diego has been presented with a chance to potentially earn their way to a National League Wild Card home series, standing 1.5 games behind both the Cubs and Phillies. Here’s what it will take:

Padres have chance to make hay with seven straight against non-playoff teams

Beginning with a four-game series at Colorado, the Padres are 2-1 there this year and 9-7 over the past three years with a 16-7 mark in the series overall that includes an 8-1 record this season. They’re catching Colorado at a particularly tough point, with the Rockies having lost their last seven games and eight of their last nine where their average run differential is -3.34.

Still, Colorado is 3-3 in their last two home stands, pushing the Orioles back in the AL Wild Card chase and nicking one from a Cardinals side that currently sits 7.5 games back in the NL Wild Card chase and has since dropped four of six after the loss at the Rockies.

Xander Bogaerts has absolutely feasted against the Rockies in his career, slashing .360/.432/.646 with 13 doubles, a triple and 12 home runs in 48 games with 26 RBI against Colorado. Jackson Merrill has been close behind with a .340/.397/.573 mark, hitting six of 11 extra base hits over the wall for 24 RBI in 29 games, while Fernando Tatis Jr. has a .313/.382/.566 mark with 13 homers and 26 multi-base hits for 44 RBI in 70 games. Manny Machado's 126 games against the Rockies have seen him slash .284/.352/..486 with 83 RBi on 22 homers, 30 doubles and a triple across 126 games.

With the Padres on a seven-game winning streak, one game off their season’s best set in April, this has ‘trap series’ written all over it. How San Diego handles it will have a lot to say about where they stand with the two teams above them, suddenly in striking distance.

Tough schedule puts Phillies into chasing distance

Philadelphia has drifted into range thanks to facing the Braves in a four-game home series which they split, then dropping two of three against a desperate Astros side at home. They followed that up by dropping the first two of a three-game set in Atlanta.

While Kyle Schwarber has led the team with 30 RBI since the beginning of September, he’s also struck out at a 3.9% lower rate than he has for the entire season — that’s still at 28.9% of the time.

Bryce Harper and Alec Bohm continue to follow behind him as the next biggest RBI producers on the club, but Bryson Stott has seen a major fall off, having only driven in 13 of his 62 for the season since the start of September.

Still, the Phillies pitchers have the third-lowest ERA since the start of September at 3.20, and average the third-most K’s per nine innings at 9.75 with the lowest expected ERA at 3.40 over the stretch.

Now, Philadelphia has a six-game road swing against teams comfortably outside the playoff picture: two at the Nationals, and then four against the Nets.

It’s worth mentioning, their final six home games come against the toughest schedule the Majors has to offer: three against the MLB-best Milwaukee Brewers, and then three against the AL-leading Tampa Bay Rays. However, with both sides already having clinched a Postseason berth and likely to have locked down their division pennants by then, whether they'll play at full strength remains to be seen.

Cubs also battling tough final path to close season

Chicago is suddenly in view too thanks to dropping two of three to open the month against the Brewers, dropping a game in a three-game series at the Marlins, then getting swept at Milwaukee and dropping the home series finale against the Pirates.

It feels almost as much a matter of scheduling as it does play on the field, as Alex Bregman (37) and Pete Crow-Amrstrong (35) have been pulling the cart in terms of RBIs, with both combining for 21 of the Cubs MLB-best 72 home runs over the stretch.

The Cubs have produced the most runs since the start of September (232 – nine more than the Brewers), despite ranking 20th in ERA (4.34) and allowing the second-most home runs per 9 innings (1.52) over the stretch.

Chicago, last year’s first round out for the Padres, closes with a home three-game set against Atlanta, a road trip for three in Cincinnati, and a three-game home set against the Marlins before closing the season with three at the Red Sox. Boston, who currently sits six games up for the second AL Wild Card, will likely have locked their Postseason spot in by then.

Zooming Out

A key note about both of these teams the Padres are chasing: if the Padres want to surpass the Phillies and Cubs, they will have to finish above both.

The Cubs won the season series against San Diego by taking two of three at Petco Park in late April, then sweeping the series at Wrigley Field in late-June/early-July for a 5-1 season series edge. The last time the two teams played on July 1, the Cubs won 23-3. The Phillies took all six games, three home and three away, in an 11-day stretch from May 25 to July 4.  Three of the games were separated by one run, with the remaining three having an eight run differential.

The Padres have a 8-1 season series edge over the Rockies thanks to two of six home wins via walk off, and took all three meetings from the Marlins in Miami in late July with wins of 4-2, 7-2 and 5-3.

But Arizona should absolutely not be put in the rearview at this point, they continue a nine-game home stand against with three against the Marlins, then face the New York Yankees for three beginning Friday, Sept. 18. The Yankees have a magic number of two to clinch an AL Wild Card spot.

San Diego's magic number stands at 11 to clinch a Postseason berth, the combination of Padres wins over their final 13 games and Arizona losses over their 12 games remaining.