How the Astros’ Pitching Stacks Up in the AL West

The Houston Astros finished the 2025 season looking up at another team in the AL West for just the second time in nine years. Now, their pitching staff might be the key to getting back atop the division.

The offense has plenty of firepower and can bang with almost any lineup in the American League, even if there are a few question marks. But the starting rotation will be without Framber Valdez for the first time since 2018, and his spot will be filled with some unproven names.

Meanwhile, the bullpen has arguably the best back end in the game, but the depth options include some inconsistent or inexperienced arms.

Here’s how the Astros’ pitching staff matches up to those of the Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers, and if they have enough to return to the top of their division.

Starting Rotation

RosterResource has the Astros’ top six starters as Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, Tatsuya Imai, Lance McCullers Jr., Mike Burrows, and Ryan Weiss.

Their depth includes Spencer Arrighetti, AJ Blubaugh, Miguel Ullola, Jason Alexander, Colton Gordon, Kai-Wei Teng, J.P. France, and Peter Lambert.

That gives Houston a top-end starter in Brown, a guy who’s flashed upside but is coming off an injury in Javier, and a whole bunch of wild cards.

Imai comes over from Japan and has the most upside of the rest of the names, but he will likely be limited in how many starts he makes as he gets used to life in MLB.

McCullers’ big issue is health, and at this point, it’s hard to count on him at all. He made his triumphant return last season, but threw 55.1 innings to a 6.52 ERA. There’s a world where McCullers can get back to a mid-4.00s ERA, but it’s unlikely he throws more than 100 innings.

Burrows has some upside as well, given his former prospect pedigree and relative inexperience in the bigs. He was clearly coveted in the Brandon Lowe trade and will get a spot in the rotation, but there’s a ton of variance. He could be a legitimate middle-of-the-rotation starter, or he could turn into a depth arm that has options.

Weiss is returning from the KBO, and he’s more of a flyer than anything. If he doesn’t perform, one of those depth options can easily step in and provide as much, if not more, value.

Bullpen

This unit is headlined by Josh Hader, when he returns from injury, and Bryan Abreu. Then things start to get a little sketchy.

Bryan King has asserted himself as the clear No. 3, even if he isn’t yet a household name. Steven Okert seemed to find something last year, but he is 34 with minimal success in the past. The same goes for Bennett Sousa, though he’s only 30.

Then we get into Enyel De Los Santos, Jayden Murray, Roddery Muñoz, Nate Pearson, Anthony Maldonado and Tom Cosgrove, all guys who are inconsistent at best and not reliable in leverage.

It’s a scary group, especially if Imai, Weiss and Burrows can’t get deep into games and require multiple relievers before they can pass the ball to King, Abreu and Hader.

Comparison to Mariners and Rangers

The Mariners won the AL West last season and return arguably the best rotation and pitching staff in baseball.

The fivesome of Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo and Bryce Miller is elite and clearly surpasses Houston’s rotation.

Andrés Muñoz, Matt Brash, Jose A. Ferrer, Eduard Bazardo and Gabe Speier form an incredible back-end of the ‘pen that gives manager Dan Wilson lots of choices and the ability to play the handedness game.

Their depth relievers, including Carlos Vargas, Casey Legumina, Cooper Criswell, Josh Simpson and Troy Taylor, also surpass the Astros’ options, giving Seattle the clear advantage.

I’d say there’s a fairly wide gap between the two staffs at this point, and it could ultimately decide the division. There appear to be more internal options with high upside in Seattle, and Houston doesn’t necessarily have the assets required to go get a big-time difference maker. But stud relievers pop up out of nowhere all the time, and that can help close the gap for the Astros.

Texas had the top starting rotation ERA in baseball a year ago, and the core of that rotation returns. Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi are back after great seasons in 2025, and MacKenzie Gore provides the upside of a third top-of-the-rotation arm.

Jack Leiter can also break out, and if he does, he would bring the Rangers’ rotation near to the same level as Seattle’s, but health at the top is also a major concern.

A healthy Texas rotation will likely surpass Houston’s, but there’s also a world in which deGrom and Eovaldi miss extended time, Gore fades in the second half again and Jacob Latz, Kumar Rocker, Jordan Montgomery, Austin Gomber and Cal Quantrill can’t provide enough quality innings to counter that.

The Astros’ bullpen also likely holds an advantage thanks to its back end. Robert Garcia and Chris Martin are solid but unspectacular options for Texas to close out games.

Cole Winn, Jakob Junis, Josh Sborz, Tyler Alexander, Ryan Brasier, Carter Baumler, Alexis Díaz, Emiliano Teodo, Marc Church and Michel Otañez likely don’t move the needle any more than Houston’s complementary relief arms, even if it’s a group with some more upside.

Ultimately, Houston’s pitching staff is good, but not great. Brown, Hader and Abreu will have to do a lot of heavy lifting, though King can be a good replacement setup man with Hader out to start the year.

If the Astros are going to usurp Seattle to win the AL West, their staff will likely have to hit its 80th percentile outcome with Imai shining (and then opting out), Burrows finally living up to the prospect pedigree, Weiss continuing his KBO success and some relievers taking major steps up.

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