A Healthy Cole Ragans Will Immensely Help the 2026 Royals

The Kansas City Royals have leaned on their starting pitching for success over the past two seasons.

In 2024, the Royals’ rotation ranked second in ERA at 3.55. That was key to their 30-win turnaround that season, which also saw them advance to the ALDS. Last year, they only went 82-80, but the rotation was solid once again. The Kansas City starting pitching group finished seventh in ERA with a 3.80 mark.

What’s most incredible about last year’s rotation success for the Royals is that they did it without having a full season from their ace, Cole Ragans.

In 2024, Ragans was one of the best starting pitchers in baseball.

In 32 starts and 186.1 IP, the left-hander struck out 223 batters and posted an ERA of 3.14 and 1.14 WHIP. He also posted a 2.99 FIP and accumulated 4.9 fWAR, showing that he was not just a strikeout artist but also an incredibly valuable pitcher. As a result, Ragans finished fourth in AL Cy Young voting that season and also made the All-Star team for the first time in his career.

Things regressed a little for him in 2025, though the vast majority of it was due to injury. Ragans made only 13 starts and pitched 61.2 innings due to a groin strain (initially in May) and then a rotator cuff strain, which put him on the 60-Day IL from June 11 to September 17.

However, when he returned from the IL, Ragans looked like his 2024 self. In three starts and 13 IP in September, he posted a 2.77 ERA, a 0.77 WHIP, and struck out 22 batters. Overall, in 2025, the former Rangers draft pick posted a high 4.67 ERA. That said, his FIP was much better at 2.50, and he also produced a K rate of 38.1% and a 30.4% K-BB%, both better than his rates in 2024.

When Ragans is healthy, the Royals are a much better team. It is likely that if he were fully healthy in 2025, they would’ve been much better than their 82-win record and could have surpassed their 2024 86-win mark.

Thus, what should Royals and baseball fans expect from Ragans in 2026? What does he need to improve, especially from a year ago? And what has Ragans’ spring performance been like so far in Cactus League play?

Let’s take a look at the answers to those three questions concerning the two-time Royals Opening Day starter.

Ragans’ Pitch Quality and Mix Make Him Elite

Ragans has always been a pitcher who heavily relies on his four-seamer for success. Last year, he threw the four-seamer 49.5% of the time. That was a 7.8% increase in usage from the previous year and a career high at the MLB level.

Last year, using the four-seamer more seemed to make sense for Ragans. The pitch generated a whiff rate of 28.6%, a put-away rate of 23.1%, and had an xwOBA of .286. That was better than all his marks in those categories from the previous season.

A big reason for that is Ragans’ elite velocity and command of the pitch. Not only did he average 95.3 MPH on the four-seamer and a spin rate of 2,573 RPM, but he also located the four-seamer effectively up in the zone.

Below is an example of Ragans from April of last year, not only hitting premium velocity with his four-seamer (96.8 MPH), but also locating up in the zone with two strikes. As a result, Cleveland’s Ángel Martínez strikes out.

While Ragans establishes himself with the four-seamer, he can also effectively command his other offerings so that they work well off his primary pitch.

In terms of breaking stuff, he throws his slider 13.8% of the time and knuckle curve 12.8% of the time. He throws his changeup 19.2% of the time, his second most-thrown offering (after his fastball). He does a good job of locating his breaking offerings low and glove-side, while his changeup is thrown armside. 

When paired with a tough four-seamer, those secondary offerings can be difficult for hitters to adjust to. 

The changeup and slider are interesting, complementary pitches. They both have similar velocities (around 84 MPH) but exhibit vastly different movement. Thus, based on those qualities, it’s not a surprise that Ragans’ changeup generated a 50.4% whiff rate and his slider produced a 43.4% whiff rate a season ago. His curveball looked a little different than those two pitches, but he was still effective with it. That was evidenced by his 32.4% whiff rate on that pitch last season.

With excellent velocity and movement as well as stellar command, Ragans’ pitch mix is ace-level and should carry the Royals’ rotation if healthy.

Ragans’ Issue: More Barrels Allowed in 2025

The lone blemish in Ragans’ profile in 2025 was that he gave up more barrels than in 2024.

In 2024, his barrel rate allowed was 6.2%, and his LA Sweet-Spot% allowed was 31.8%. As a result, his HR/FB% was 8.1%, and his GB% (groundball percentage) was 40.7%. Those are good, though not elite batted-ball metrics.

Things regressed on the batted-ball end in 2025 for Ragans. His barrel rate increased to 9.5%, and his LA Sweet-Spot% also rose to 32.1%. That caused inflation in his HR/FB% (12.3%) and a decrease in his GB% (36.8%). Those negative trends led to a much higher ERA than normal for Ragans in 2025.

The reality is that hitters were launching the ball more effectively against him last year (when they did make contact). In fact, his Sweet-Spot% trend in 2025 showed much higher spikes above average than in previous Ragans seasons, especially with the Royals (second half of 2023 to 2025).

What’s interesting about Ragans’ 2025 is that he started the year well in limiting Sweet-Spot%. However, he started to see a gradual spike over the course of his limited season, with his worst Sweet-Spot% numbers being at the end of his 2025 campaign.

Conversely, Ragans started to see a Sweet-Spot spike in 2024 after about 100 batted balls. He was able to limit that Sweet-Spot% trend after 50 or so batted balls, and it actually got to below average by the end of the 2024 season.

Thus, it’s possible that Ragans would have seen a natural regression in Sweet-Spot% if he pitched more innings. That would have helped him lower the barrel and HR/FB rates while increasing the GB%. All those factors would’ve led to some stabilization in ERA, which never quite happened last year in Ragans’ limited inning sample.

What’s Ragans Looking Like This Spring?

The traditional numbers haven’t been great for Ragans in spring training thus far.

In three outings and seven innings pitched, he has a 10.29 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. He has given up eight runs on 10 hits, including two home runs. However, on a positive note, he has struck out 10 batters while walking only one in Cactus League play.

Another positive sign is that the stuff has looked stellar, which honestly is more important for a pitcher right now than results. According to Eno Sarris’ Stuff+ metrics from spring training, Ragans has the second-best overall Stuff+ of any starting pitcher this spring (as of March 13).

Spring Training Starting Pitcher Stuff+ leaders includes two young Yankees and two young Cardinals pic.twitter.com/fM5x2Tnqlt

— Eno Sarris (@enosarris) March 13, 2026

The main issue for Ragans has been the command. His location-plus (L+) is only 91, which is well below average. That said, he’s sporting a 119 Stuff+, helping him produce an overall Pitching+ of 109.

Any tick in command, which likely will happen as Ragans gets more ready for Opening Day, will result in not just more strikeouts (though he’s getting plenty of those), but better ERA and WHIP numbers as well. Ragans’ mechanics can take some time to get sound, and Ragans has demonstrated that with lackluster campaigns in previous Cactus League seasons. In spring training of 2024, his ERA was 6.75 in 17.1 IP. Last year in spring training, his ERA was 8.20 in 18.2 IP.

Thus, Ragans is doing everything to show that his arm is ready to go for a full campaign in 2026.

If that’s the case, the Royals may challenge for not just a postseason spot, but an AL Central Division title as well. That’s how much a healthy Ragans can swing this Royals team this season.

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