MLB · 11 hours ago

5 Hitters Who Have the Most to Gain in Their Contract Year

SportsGrid Contributor Just Baseball

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Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Who doesn’t love a high-risk, high-reward baseball player, eh?

After years of flashing tantalizing talent and having it be derailed time and again by injuries, Chisholm finally put it all together in 2025, posting a 30-30 season and a career-best 4.2 bWAR across 130 games with the Yankees. That followed a career-high 147-game campaign split between Miami and New York in 2024, marking the first time he showed sustained durability.

2026 is his final arbitration year, and he’s earning a $10.2 million base salary. Chisholm certainly isn’t shy, and he is reportedly seeking a deal in the range of eight to ten years at $35 million annually. But superstar consistency begets superstar money, and general managers everywhere are still evaluating whether Chisholm can be relied upon over the course of a long season.

Chisholm’s tools have never been in question. He brings power, speed, defensive versatility and energy that can change a game in an instant. But the injuries, streakiness and questions about whether 2025 was an outlier still linger.

If he stays healthy and produces at a similar level, another 25-30 homer, 25-30 steal season with strong overall value, he becomes one of the most coveted free agents on the market.

The post 5 Hitters Who Have the Most to Gain in Their Contract Year appeared first on Just Baseball.
Honorable Mentions
Trent Grisham

Trent Grisham bet on himself by accepting the Yankees’ qualifying offer after a 34-home run breakout in 2025. That total that doubled his previous career-high, set back in 2022 with the Padres. That power surge definitely changed the narrative around him, and what always goes under the radar with Grisham is his walk rate. Home runs weren’t the only area in which Grisham set a career-high in 2025 — he also finished in the 96th percentile in walk rate, drawing 82 walks.

Still, the question remains whether his power output is sustainable, especially considering his 23.6% strikeout rate in 2025 (36th percentile). Grisham will turn 30 years old next offseason, so if he can pair his 2025 power with even a modest bump in batting average, and keep the walk rate elite, he goes from a glove-first outfielder to a legitimate everyday center fielder with a three-true-outcome hitting profile and multi-year contract appeal.

Gleyber Torres

Gleyber Torres is once again in a prove-it spot after accepting another one-year deal in Detroit. His 2025 All-Star rebound (hit .281 with an .812 OPS at the All-Star break) helped stabilize his value, but teams still view him as volatile. A rough second half last year tanked his final numbers to a .256 AVG and .745 OPS by season’s end.

Torres has four 24+-homer seasons to his name, but the last one came in 2023, and he hasn’t even sniffed his 2019 heights (38 HR, 90 RBI, .278 AVG, .871 OPS). Next offseason he will turn 30. Improved defensive metrics and a return to form in power in 2026 could steal some dollar signs, positioning him as a longer-term solution rather than a stopgap.
Seiya Suzuki
At 31 years old, Seiya Suzuki enters the final year of his five-year, $85 million deal with the Cubs still feeling like a player we haven’t fully figured out. The flashes have always been there. A 32-home run, 103-RBI campaign in 2025 showed impactful power production, but the batting average dropped from .284 in 2023/2024 to .245 in 2025. While his plate eye remained sharp, ranking in the 93rd percentile in chase rate in 2025, the reduction in hits ultimately dropped his on-base percentage from .360 the previous two years to .326.

Consistency is the lingering issue. Suzuki has battled minor injuries and stretches of uneven production that have kept him outside the elite tier of MLB hitters. His underlying metrics regarding barrel and hard-hit rate, however, have always been in the upper echelon of the sport, suggesting there’s another level of production to unlock.

This season is about proving reliability…as soon as his season can begin. Suzuki starts 2026 on the shelf due to a knee injury and is expected back around April 10.

The Cubs are trying to contend right now, and Suzuki sits squarely in the middle of that lineup. If he strings together a mostly healthy season with middle-of-the-order production, he positions himself as one of the more intriguing free-agent bats on the market.
Randy Arozarena
Randy Arozarena has built his reputation as a postseason legend, in large part thanks to a historic 2020 postseason run, but his regular-season profile has been more steady than spectacular. Since his breakout, his OPS has hovered in the mid-.700s, and he hasn’t hit .240+ since 2023.

Last year, Arozarena notched several career highs, including 27 home runs and 31 stolen bases in 160 games played, and half of those games were played in pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park.

Arozarena is currently in his age-31 season, and at 32 years old next year, he’s at the point where long-term deals start to get tricky, especially when the fielding value is already basically non-existent.

If he can eclipse an OPS north of .800 for the first time since 2021 in an environment notoriously tough on hitters, it proves his production isn’t park-dependent and gives teams confidence he can age gracefully as a middle-of-the-order bat.
Daulton Varsho
The Wisconsin native may not have an All-Star selection to his name, and may just have one Gold Glove (2024) on his ledger, but Daulton Varsho might be the best defensive outfielder in baseball. From 2022 to 2024, Varsho’s fielding run value, per Baseball Savant, hovered between 11 and 16, which placed him in the 95th-99th percentile.

Last year, despite just appearing in 71 games, he still achieved 81st percentile defense in center field. And, oh yeah, he also clocked 20 home runs.

He consistently ranks near the top of the league in Outs Above Average and run prevention, and despite playing a lot of catcher growing up and through the early parts of his career, Varsho still manages great foot speed and defensive range. And, naturally, what comes with being able to play catcher for so long, he flexes tremendous arm strength. .

The problem is that defense alone rarely gets you paid. The hitting power has always been there, as he has clocked 18-to-27 home runs in each of the last four seasons, but the batting average and walk rate have always been low, while the strikeout rate has always been high.

If Varsho can deliver a full season with more consistency at the dish, something like 25+ home runs with league-average offensive production, he establishes himself as a premium two-way player.

Varsho turns 30 this July, so this is likely his one shot at a major payday.
Bo Bichette
Kyle Tucker signed with the Dodgers on January 16, and then the hot stove stayed burning when Bo Bichette made headlines signing a three-year, $126 million deal with the Mets on January 16. The all-important caveat here is that there are opt-outs after each of the next two seasons.

It’s a bit of a “bet-on-yourself” contract in disguise.

After a down, injury-riddled 2024, Bichette bounced back in 2025 with a 134 wRC+ and league-best numbers with men in scoring position (.381 AVG, 80 RBI, 1.046 OPS), reminding everyone just how dynamic his bat can be. Now he’s in New York with added pressure, and opportunity.

Moving off shortstop and into a more flexible infield role, primarily at third base, means the bat has to carry more weight. But if Bichette hits .300 again (would be the third time in a full season in his career), drives the ball with authority, and proves he can handle the defensive transition, it feels likely he opts out and re-enters free agency.

And when he does, he will seek the long-term, franchise-altering deal that eluded him the first time.
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Who doesn’t love a high-risk, high-reward baseball player, eh?

After years of flashing tantalizing talent and having it be derailed time and again by injuries, Chisholm finally put it all together in 2025, posting a 30-30 season and a career-best 4.2 bWAR across 130 games with the Yankees. That followed a career-high 147-game campaign split between Miami and New York in 2024, marking the first time he showed sustained durability.

2026 is his final arbitration year, and he’s earning a $10.2 million base salary. Chisholm certainly isn’t shy, and he is reportedly seeking a deal in the range of eight to ten years at $35 million annually. But superstar consistency begets superstar money, and general managers everywhere are still evaluating whether Chisholm can be relied upon over the course of a long season.

Chisholm’s tools have never been in question. He brings power, speed, defensive versatility and energy that can change a game in an instant. But the injuries, streakiness and questions about whether 2025 was an outlier still linger.

If he stays healthy and produces at a similar level, another 25-30 homer, 25-30 steal season with strong overall value, he becomes one of the most coveted free agents on the market.

The post 5 Hitters Who Have the Most to Gain in Their Contract Year appeared first on Just Baseball.
Honorable Mentions
Trent Grisham

Trent Grisham bet on himself by accepting the Yankees’ qualifying offer after a 34-home run breakout in 2025. That total that doubled his previous career-high, set back in 2022 with the Padres. That power surge definitely changed the narrative around him, and what always goes under the radar with Grisham is his walk rate. Home runs weren’t the only area in which Grisham set a career-high in 2025 — he also finished in the 96th percentile in walk rate, drawing 82 walks.

Still, the question remains whether his power output is sustainable, especially considering his 23.6% strikeout rate in 2025 (36th percentile). Grisham will turn 30 years old next offseason, so if he can pair his 2025 power with even a modest bump in batting average, and keep the walk rate elite, he goes from a glove-first outfielder to a legitimate everyday center fielder with a three-true-outcome hitting profile and multi-year contract appeal.

Gleyber Torres

Gleyber Torres is once again in a prove-it spot after accepting another one-year deal in Detroit. His 2025 All-Star rebound (hit .281 with an .812 OPS at the All-Star break) helped stabilize his value, but teams still view him as volatile. A rough second half last year tanked his final numbers to a .256 AVG and .745 OPS by season’s end.

Torres has four 24+-homer seasons to his name, but the last one came in 2023, and he hasn’t even sniffed his 2019 heights (38 HR, 90 RBI, .278 AVG, .871 OPS). Next offseason he will turn 30. Improved defensive metrics and a return to form in power in 2026 could steal some dollar signs, positioning him as a longer-term solution rather than a stopgap.

5 Hitters Who Have the Most to Gain in Their Contract Year

Trent Grisham

Gleyber Torres

Trent Grisham

Gleyber Torres

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