MLB · 10 hours ago

10 MLB Players Who Will Make or Break the 2026 NL Central Race

SportsGrid Contributor Just Baseball

Host · Writer

Fan Engagement & Predictions - Who Is Your Team’s Ultimate 2026 X-Factor?
Sound Off: Will the Cubs, Brewers, Reds, Cardinals, or Pirates Take the Crown?

The National League Central is shaping up to be one of the tightest, most unpredictable divisions in the 2026 MLB season. While names like Paul Skenes and Elly De La Cruz will dominate the headlines, it’s the high-upside wildcards—the Jared Joneses, Joey Ortizs, and Jordan Walkers—who will ultimately decide who plays October baseball.

Now, we want to hear from you.
- Is there a sleeper on your team's roster that the Just Baseball Show completely missed?
- Who do you think will win the 2026 NL Central?
Join the debate! Drop your predictions, breakout candidates, and hottest 2026 baseball takes in the comments section. If you agree (or disagree) with our picks, hit the share button and send this to a fellow fan to see where they stand before Opening Day.
2026 MLB Season Preview: The Biggest X-Factors in the NL Central
As the calendar turns to March and we enter the final stages of the 2026 MLB offseason, the Just Baseball Show is breaking down the biggest difference-makers across the league. Predicting a team’s "X-factor" is one of the most exciting exercises of the spring—these are the wildcards who can entirely change the trajectory of a franchise's season.

Recently, MLB analysts Aram Leighton and Peter Appel set their sights on the National League Central. Here is their breakdown of the high-stakes players who will define the 2026 NL Central race.

(Click "Next" to begin the gallery)

The post X-factors for the 2026 MLB Season: NL Central appeared first on Just Baseball.
Joey Ortiz's Make-or-Break Season: Elite Glove, Questionable Bat
Will the Former Top Prospect Reclaim His 2024 Rookie Form?

Coming off a dreadful 2025 season, elite defender Joey Ortiz has everything to prove. His impact on the lineup is undeniable—if he can find his swing.
- The 2025 Slump: Among qualified hitters, Ortiz ranked dead last in OPS (.593) and wOBA (.263), posting the third-lowest wRC+ (67) in MLB.
- The 2024 Peak: Ortiz previously proved his worth as a 3.2-fWAR player during his rookie campaign, posting a 105 wRC+ and a .726 OPS.
The Brewers highly value his elite shortstop defense, but a .593 OPS won't cut it for a championship contender. If Ortiz can return to being a league-average bat, his glove alone makes him a walking three-win player. He is playing for his starting job in 2026.
Andrew Vaughn’s Resurgence: Milwaukee’s Ultimate Offensive Wildcard
How a Mid-Season Trade Transformed the Brewers' Lineup

The Milwaukee Brewers have a myriad of wildcards, but their biggest X-factor resides in the heart of the lineup. Andrew Vaughn took the league by storm last season after a mid-year change of scenery.
- The Low point: Vaughn posted a -1.8 bWAR and slashed a dismal .189/.218/.314 in 48 games with the Chicago White Sox before being traded.
- The Resurgence: After joining Milwaukee’s big-league roster on July 7, 2025, Vaughn slashed .308/.375/.493, registering an .869 OPS and 1.3 bWAR across 64 games.
Prior to his arrival, the Brewers’ offense ranked 15th in wRC+ (98) and 19th in OPS (.703). From July 7 onward, Milwaukee surged to the second-best wRC+ in baseball (118) and fifth in OPS (.775). Vaughn supplanted Rhys Hoskins at first base and carried the offense. But given his history as a historically below-average bat, which version of Vaughn shows up in 2026 will dictate Milwaukee's ceiling.
Pete Crow-Armstrong: The MVP Candidate Holding the Cubs’ Fate
A Tale of Two Halves: Why First-Half PCA is the Key to Chicago's World Series Hopes

According to Leighton and Appel, the Cubs’ X-factor is almost too obvious: Pete Crow-Armstrong (PCA). He can influence the trajectory of Chicago's season more than anyone else on the roster, a fact proven in real-time last year.
- First-Half MVP: Pre-All-Star break, PCA amassed the fourth-highest fWAR in MLB (4.6), slashing .265/.302/.544 with 25 home runs and 27 stolen bases in 95 games. Chicago sat at 57-39, holding the third-best record in MLB.
- Second-Half Collapse: In 62 games post-break, PCA slashed .216/.262/.372 for a 72 wRC+ (ninth-lowest in MLB) and a .634 OPS. The Cubs went 35-31, surrendering the division lead.
With PCA thriving, the Cubs had the third-best offense by wRC+ (115). When he slumped, they fell to 15th (102 wRC+). If Chicago wants a World Series in 2026, they need first-half PCA.
Edward Cabrera: Chicago's 94-MPH Secret Weapon (Honorable Mention)
Unlocking the Highest Ceiling in the Cubs' 2026 Rotation

While Crow-Armstrong is the primary key, 27-year-old Edward Cabrera stands out as the ultimate pitching wildcard.
- The Acquisition: Acquired this offseason for top prospect Owen Caissie, Cabrera is currently slotted as the No. 2 starter behind Matthew Boyd.
- The Arsenal: Cabrera is a fireballer whose calling card is a devastating 94-mph changeup.
- The Stats: He is coming off a career year, posting a 3.53 ERA across a career-high 137.2 innings.
The catch? Health and control. Cabrera sports a career 4.50 walks per nine innings across 87 big-league starts. If Chicago can harness his control and keep him healthy, his ceiling is the highest in their rotation.
Sal Stewart: The Prospect Ready to Stabilize Cincinnati's Lineup
Why the 22-Year-Old Phenom is the Reds' Missing Offensive Link

Cincinnati's lineup is packed with potential, but it severely lacks stability. Enter Sal Stewart, recently ranked as Just Baseball’s No. 15 prospect in baseball.

The Reds have highly volatile bats: Matt McLain posted a 77 wRC+ in 147 games last year, Elly De La Cruz has an erratic profile, and Eugenio Suárez is heavily homer-or-bust. Stewart offers the exact contact-and-power balance Cincinnati needs.
- Minor League Dominance: The 22-year-old slashed .309/.383/.524 for a massive 152 wRC+ in 118 games across Double-A and Triple-A last season.
- MLB Glimpse: He already showed major promise during an 18-game MLB sample last year. If Stewart translates his disciplined approach to the big leagues, he will be the ultimate stabilizer in the heart of the Reds' order.
Chase Burns: MLB's Most Lethal 2026 Breakout Candidate
Building a Postseason-Ready Rotation Behind a 100-MPH Fastball

Chase Burns might be the most popular breakout pick in all of Major League Baseball heading into 2026.

Selected second overall in the 2024 MLB draft, Burns climbed from High-A all the way to the majors last year. While his surface-level 4.57 ERA might look shaky, the underlying metrics are terrifying for opposing hitters:
- The Arsenal: Burns features a rising, near-100-mph four-seam fastball paired with a sharp, wipeout slider.
- Elite Strikeouts: He punched out nearly 14 hitters per nine innings across his 43.1 MLB innings.
- Late-Season Dominance: Over his final seven appearances (16 innings), Burns pitched to a microscopic 1.69 ERA and a 1.95 FIP.
If Burns fully breaks out, he and Hunter Greene will form arguably the most lethal one-two punch in MLB, pushing All-Star Andrew Abbott down to the No. 3 spot and giving Cincinnati a terrifying postseason rotation.
Jordan Walker's Crossroad: Can the Former Phenom Save His Career?
Fixing the Strikeout Issue for St. Louis’ 23-Year-Old Cornerstone

Once heralded as the future of the franchise, Jordan Walker’s big-league career has hit a massive roadblock. In 279 career MLB games, he is slashing just .240/.302/.378 with an 89 wRC+, a .680 OPS, and a -0.9 fWAR.
- The Strikeout Problem: Walker's strikeout rate ballooned to a highly concerning 31.8% last season.
- The Upside: Fans haven't forgotten his 2023 rookie campaign, where he struck out only 22.4% of the time, hitting .276 with 16 homers and a 116 wRC+ in 117 games.
The crucial context? Walker is still just 23 years old—younger than top prospect JJ Wetherholt and several players on the Top 100 Prospects list. With St. Louis entering a transition phase, Walker still has the raw talent to become a cornerstone if he can fix his plate discipline.
Dustin May: The $12.5 Million Flier That Could Define the Cardinals' Year
Rotation Anchor or Trade Deadline Blockbuster?

The Cardinals took a massive, high-upside flier this offseason, bringing in 28-year-old Dustin May on a one-year, $12.5 million contract.

Once considered one of the elite young arms in the Dodgers' system, injuries have derailed May's trajectory. Despite playing in six MLB seasons, he has only logged 324 career big-league innings. Prior to throwing a career-high 132.1 innings in 2025, his previous season-high was just 56 innings back in 2020.

May enters 2026 with easily the highest ceiling of any starter in St. Louis. If he stays healthy and anchors the rotation, the Cardinals could play spoiler. Alternatively, if St. Louis falls out of the race, a healthy May could net a massive return at the August trade deadline.
Jared Jones: The Post-Surgery Return of Pittsburgh’s 97-MPH Ace
Recreating the Skenes-Jones Batman and Robin Duo

The Pittsburgh Pirates haven’t played postseason baseball since 2015. If they finally break that drought in 2026, it will be on the backs of their starting pitching—specifically Jared Jones.

Before undergoing a UCL internal brace procedure ahead of the 2025 season, Jones looked like the perfect Robin to Paul Skenes’ Batman in 2024.
- Elite Velocity: Jones wields a 97.3 mph four-seamer that averages over 17 inches of induced vertical break.
- Wipeout Secondary: His 88.8 mph slider generated an elite 37.3% whiff rate.
Despite a 4.14 ERA in 2024, Jones' pure stuff is undeniably frontline caliber. How his arm responds post-surgery is the single biggest deciding factor for the Pirates' playoff hopes this year.
Bubba Chandler: The Un-Hittable Rookie Ready to Dominate
How a .080 Batting Average Against Changes the Pirates' Postseason Math

If Jones doesn't break out, Bubba Chandler absolutely could. Ranked as Just Baseball’s No. 12 overall prospect, Chandler brings his own frontline upside to Pittsburgh.

Don't let his 4.02 ERA in 2025 fool you—it was heavily inflated by surrendering nine runs in his first MLB start.
- The Rebound: Across his final three starts of the year, Chandler allowed just two runs, striking out 19 batters and walking zero.
- Un-hittable Arsenal: His changeup generated a microscopic .080 batting average against with a 39.6% whiff rate. His slider was equally devastating, yielding an .087 batting average against.
Learning directly under Paul Skenes, Chandler enters his first full MLB season with sky-high expectations. If either Jones or Chandler reaches their ceiling, Pittsburgh boasts a trio of young arms that rivals any rotation in the sport.
Fan Engagement & Predictions - Who Is Your Team’s Ultimate 2026 X-Factor?
Sound Off: Will the Cubs, Brewers, Reds, Cardinals, or Pirates Take the Crown?

The National League Central is shaping up to be one of the tightest, most unpredictable divisions in the 2026 MLB season. While names like Paul Skenes and Elly De La Cruz will dominate the headlines, it’s the high-upside wildcards—the Jared Joneses, Joey Ortizs, and Jordan Walkers—who will ultimately decide who plays October baseball.

Now, we want to hear from you.
- Is there a sleeper on your team's roster that the Just Baseball Show completely missed?
- Who do you think will win the 2026 NL Central?
Join the debate! Drop your predictions, breakout candidates, and hottest 2026 baseball takes in the comments section. If you agree (or disagree) with our picks, hit the share button and send this to a fellow fan to see where they stand before Opening Day.
2026 MLB Season Preview: The Biggest X-Factors in the NL Central
As the calendar turns to March and we enter the final stages of the 2026 MLB offseason, the Just Baseball Show is breaking down the biggest difference-makers across the league. Predicting a team’s "X-factor" is one of the most exciting exercises of the spring—these are the wildcards who can entirely change the trajectory of a franchise's season.

Recently, MLB analysts Aram Leighton and Peter Appel set their sights on the National League Central. Here is their breakdown of the high-stakes players who will define the 2026 NL Central race.

(Click "Next" to begin the gallery)

The post X-factors for the 2026 MLB Season: NL Central appeared first on Just Baseball.

10 MLB Players Who Will Make or Break the 2026 NL Central Race

Sound Off: Will the Cubs, Brewers, Reds, Cardinals, or Pirates Take the Crown?

Will the Former Top Prospect Reclaim His 2024 Rookie Form?

How a Mid-Season Trade Transformed the Brewers' Lineup

A Tale of Two Halves: Why First-Half PCA is the Key to Chicago's World Series Hopes

Unlocking the Highest Ceiling in the Cubs' 2026 Rotation

Why the 22-Year-Old Phenom is the Reds' Missing Offensive Link

Building a Postseason-Ready Rotation Behind a 100-MPH Fastball

Fixing the Strikeout Issue for St. Louis’ 23-Year-Old Cornerstone

Rotation Anchor or Trade Deadline Blockbuster?

Recreating the Skenes-Jones Batman and Robin Duo

How a .080 Batting Average Against Changes the Pirates' Postseason Math

Sound Off: Will the Cubs, Brewers, Reds, Cardinals, or Pirates Take the Crown?

BETTING NEWS

FUTURES

EDITOR'S PICKS

For the Best of SportsGrid, Grab the App

BETTING NEWS

FUTURES