Expanded World Cup is proving more is more

Are South Korea through to the knockouts?

It’s a relatively straightforward question, and one that hangs over every team during the group stages of a World Cup. 

Except South Korea’s group stage finished three days ago. 

For the first time in 32 years, a handful of third-place teams have been left in limbo, waiting for the final group stage games to shake out before knowing whether or not they are through to the knockout stages. It’s just one of many consequences of the newly expanded, 48-team tournament. 

From mind-melting permutations to inspiring underdog stories, the impact of an expanded World Cup is unfolding in real time. But has bigger been better? 

For teams like South Korea, definitely. Or, definitely not? 

With 32 teams advancing out of 12 groups, only the eight best third-place teams will be moving on – the other four will be going home. But who those four are won’t be known until the final whistles of the group stage are blown later today. This has left teams like South Korea in anxious uncertainty. 

As most-likely outcomes shift with every card, goal, and result, fans watch with bated breath and tired minds, trying to stay abreast of the overwhelming permutations. But it’s not just a question of if. 

Not knowing where, when, or who your next opponent might be is a coach’s nightmare, and how they prepare to face the unknown is almost Kafkaesque. Still, that’s a problem for those lucky enough to advance, and one that teams like South Korea will likely welcome should they go through. Teams like Scotland, however, are sure to be less enthusiastic.  

With group C being one of the first to wrap up, Scotland has gradually watched their chances dwindle as other third place teams snatch goals and steal last-minute points. Currently, their chances of advancing stand at less than 1%, down from 42% three days ago. It’s been a slow, agonizing death, with just enough torturous hope to break Scottish hearts even more than they’re accustomed to.

But it’s a fine line between suffering and salvation, and while the expanded format has added salt to wounds for some, it’s made success all the sweeter for others. Just ask Ecuador. 

Their win over Germany on Thursday was one of the games of the tournament thus far, and to watch the celebrations that unfolded in New Jersey, you’d be forgiven in thinking they won their group. Instead, they finished third, overcoming a rocky start and launching them into the knockouts with historic momentum. 

Similar can be said about Bosnia and Herzegovina. For the first time in their history, they also advanced by way of third place, and are now set to face the U.S. in the round of 32. Perhaps even more remarkable, is they likely wouldn’t have qualified for the World Cup altogether if not for the 48 team format.  

Inevitably, expansion affected the qualification process itself, so it’s impossible to say with certainty which 16 teams wouldn’t have made the grade under previous iterations. But even focusing solely on the six teams that qualified for this World Cup courtesy of playoffs, two of them – Bosnia and Sweden – are advancing via third place, while DR Congo has the chance to join them in the knockouts by beating Uzbekistan later today.

Then there’s the nations who, while having qualified through traditional routes, likely would have suffered from a reduced field of 32. Third place finishers of Group D, Paraguay, would have missed the World Cup entirely due to finishing 6th in South American qualification – a position that wouldn’t have made the cut in previous tournaments. Even Brazil, a nation synonymous with the World Cup, would have been an uncertainty in a 32-team tournament. Finishing 5th in CONMEBAL qualifiers, they would have had to have won an intercontinental playoff to secure their spot. Instead, they’ve topped Group C and are on to the knockouts.

The ifs and might-haves are endless. But what’s certain is that many of the most indelible moments we’ve seen from the World Cup thus far simply wouldn’t exist.

Imagine Curaçao – the smallest nation in World Cup history – not securing a point against Ecuador? Or the Bosnian banger ‘Take Me To America’ not going viral? Or no golazo magic for Haiti, a country facing unimaginable adversity? Or, inconceivably, no Tartan Army winning over the hearts and minds of Bostonians – let alone the world? 

In the former 32-team format, it’s possible that none of these nations would have qualified and all of these memories would have gone unborn. And whether or not the likes of Scotland or Curaçao offered up worthy performances on the pitch, the color, atmosphere, and stories they brought to the tournament surely help to validate their inclusion, at least in part.

On the pitch, evaluating the expanded format proves slightly more complicated. Poor performances by the likes of Iraq, Czechia, and Türkiye (who all qualified for this World Cup via playoffs) suggests the field may in fact be too bloated. But such conclusions are, at best, premature, if not entirely limited. 

A more valuable litmus test might come in tracking the performance of African nations. With double the amount (10) of CAF teams compared to 2022 (5), the expansion of the World Cup has arguably benefited Africa more than any other confederation. At the time of writing, 6 African teams are advancing to the knockouts while a further two (Algeria and DR Congo) can still qualify. As Zlatan asked during the Fox broadcast, “is this the tournament of the African teams? We have to find out.”

Or maybe we already know?

Cape Verde has arguably been the story of the tournament. In their first ever World Cup, the island nation has been nothing short of remarkable. From getting a point in their opener against Spain, to Vozinha’s heroics against Uruguay, they finished second in their group and became the darling of fans and media alike.   

Had this World Cup remained 32 teams – and the number of CAF teams still been limited to 5 – Cape Verde’s story very possibly would have ended before it even began, back in qualification. Instead, they’re due to face defending champions Argentina in the knockouts. 

And it’s what happens there which will likely prove most powerful in swaying opinion.

Because be it Cape Verde or Croatia, Senegal or Sweden, the performance of third-place teams and so-called “minnows” in this new, additional knockout round will color the 48-team format with either intrigue or fatigue. If there is a perceived dip in quality, it’s quantity that will take the blame. 

Compared to previous tournaments at similar stages, this World Cup has seen more games, more cards, more goals, more own-goals, more VAR reviews, more upsets, more blowouts… more of everything. Good and bad. For every rousing rendition of ‘Flower Of Scotland’ there have been a dozen David Beckham advertisements. For every Vozinha save, a million mind-numbing calculations. 

Simply put, the expanded, 48-team World Cup has been a lot. Maybe even too much. But does one Cape Verde make it all worth it? 

We’ll just have to wait and see.