Santa Anita Saturday: Nevada Beach returns in Goodwood
Louie Rabaut
Host · Writer
Back to Arcadia. Back to the Great Race Place.
Horse racing is a sport which values boutique over the quotidian – racing fans love a trip to Del Mar, or Saratoga, or Keeneland. But it’s tracks like Belmont, and Churchill, and Santa Anita – that carry the season to season weight in our sport. A return to Arcadia marks the lead up to the Breeders’ Cup World Championships, and a reminder that much of the racing year has come and gone.
The Grade 1 Goodwood – a 9 furlong race on the dirt course at Santa Anita – will reward its winner with a spot in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic starting gate, and a chance at part of its $7,000,000 purse.
Nevada Beach, last year’s winner, will make his return to Santa Anita for the race. He was last seen finishing far behind the world’s best dirt horse, Forever Young, in the $20,000,000 Saudi Cup. He hasn’t run since then, so the competition has decided now is the time to pounce: the connections of both McAfee and Original Sin are based east of the Rockies, but have decided to run here.
Let’s meet the field, and put together our weekly wager. If you’re wagering on Santa Anita, check out AmWager! They have a 100% deposit match up to $50 for new customers.
Grade 1 Goodwood. 9 furlongs, dirt. 3+up. $300k.
1. Taif. 8/1. Jockey: Emisael Jaramillo. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
Taif was once a $1.45M purchase in April of 2023, but has since won only a single race. The good news: that was earlier this month, showing the horse is indeed capable of winning. That race was over the turf, and with all of the questions, he’s a rather unlikely winner here. Jockey booking is a positive, but just a few too many things to overcome in my estimation.
2. Vodka Vodka. 20/1. Jockey: Kent Desormeaux. Trainer: Aggie Ordonez.
Vodka Vodka’s best finish came this year in the Grade 1 SA Handicap – albeit in a dismally slow final time. He’ll need to find a new gear to be competitive in this group, and that seems like a bridge too far. Jockey Kent Desormeaux is a skilled rider and will give Vodka Vodka every chance – but it’s likely too much of a hill to climb today.
3. McAfee. 15/1. Jockey: Hector Berrios. Trainer: George Weaver.
We met McAfee on the 2025 Kentucky Derby trail, where he missed in all the spots that would’ve helped him qualify for the dance. Instead, he was most recently relegated to a race for horses who had never won a second race, in which he excelled. Trainer George Weaver makes the decision to send him west instead of back to Churchill Downs, so the intentionality is clear. I think he’s in over his head here, but at a 15/1 type price might be worth a swing.
4. Original Sin. 6/1. Jockey: Kazushi Kimura. Trainer: Brendan Walsh.
Trainer Brendan Walsh will likewise ship a runner for the Goodwood, sending Calumet homebred Original Sin to the gate. He tried Grade 1 company in the Pacific Classic, finishing a decent 2nd to Knightbridge; his best effort came in the Grade 3 Blame at Churchill Downs, where he won over the same distance and conditions as today’s race. I have him on the list of likely winners.
5. Midnight Mammoth. 30/1. Jockey: Tyler Baze. Trainer: Craig Dollase.
Midnight Mammoth had his chance to win a graded stakes in last May’s Gold Cup at Santa Anita, coming up less than a length short that day. Since then, his only win came in a one-turn sprint in January. He’s up against it today.
6. Mr. A.P. 8/1. Jockey: Joel Rosario. Trainer: Vladimir Cerin.
I was really happy to see trainer Vladimir Cerin include Mr. A.P. in this field, as he was one of 2025’s most intriguing 2-year-olds. As a 3-year-old, Cerin moved him to the grass, where he has had decent results. If we draw a line through the Kentucky Downs effort, this is a horse who’s never been worse than 3rd in any race, and was a half furlong away from a spectacular upset in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile this past fall. He’s only 3, so his best running may still be ahead of this son of American Pharoah; he is a serious threat to hit the board today.
7. Forged Steel. 5/1. Jockey: Edwin Gonzalez. Trainer: Saffie Joseph, Jr.
The case for Forged Steel is straightforward: he won the Grade 2 Gold Cup right here at Santa Anita in the spring – for fun – and is trained by Saffie Joseph, Jr., who isn’t afraid to ship his horses for big spots. Caldera is a fellow Joseph trainee, but I think Forged Steel is the more likely winner of the pair. Jockey Edwin Gonzalez wrapped him up last out in the Pacific Classic, giving him a good chance to have his fitness about him for today. He’s my top pick.
8. Caldera. 5/1. Jockey: Paco Lopez. Trainer: Saffie Joseph, Jr.
Caldera was one of trainer D. Wayne Lukas’ final horses, a near-winner of both the Sunland Park Derby and Bathhouse Row stakes. He’s 3-for-3 this year in the Joseph barn, all of those coming over one turn miles. Two turns could be a question for this horse, but he’s performed admirably in such races previously. All four of his lifetime race wins have come on lasix; will that be a factor today? I wouldn’t be surprised should he win with jockey Paco Lopez making the trip.
9. Nevada Beach. 7/5. Jockey: Juan Hernandez. Trainer: Bob Baffert.
On his best day, Nevada Beach is the most talented horse in this race. Off since a disappointing race in Saudi Arabia in Feburary, it’s reasonable to wonder about his fitness. The work tab indicates a Baffert trainee in good form. In his last 3 stakes in Southern California, he won 2 and lost by the slimmest margins to Nysos, who was Baffert’s best trainee prior to his recent retirement. He’s the class here, but if you’re going to beat him, it could be off the layoff in this spot.
The Sporting Tribune Wager:
$1 Pick 3, Starts Race 6 ($24): 2,3,5 / 1,7 / 4,7,8,9. Good Luck!
